本书聚焦于航空研制项目进度与成本的数智化集成管控理论和方法，通过系统性分析国内外航空研制项目管理实践，在理论模型构建、管控策略优化、数字化体系构建和智能算法设计开发等方面开展深入研究。本书建立了一套创新的数智化集成管控方法与核心技术框架，旨在提升我国航空研制项目管理的效能。本书分为三部分，共9章内容，其中第一部分介绍了航空研制项目管理的发展历程和特征，以及项目进度与成本管理理论；第二部分详细阐述了航空研制项目进度与成本数字化管控体系的设计框架、功能模块和流程；第三部分深入探讨了基于数字孪生和强化学习的智能管控模型与算法。本书对航空研制项目进度与成本的数智化管控技术进行了有益的探索与尝试，为航空、航天等高技术领域的研制项目管理提供新的思路和解决方案。本书不仅可作为工程项目管理等专业高等院校研究生的教材或参考书籍，还可作为航空研制项目管理实践者的重要参考。

晏鹏宇，男，电子科技大学经济与管理学院教授，四川省科协首批海智计划特聘专家、中国双法学会项目管理分会副秘书长、四川省智能制造创新中心专家、四川省国际科技合作（以色列）研究院（教育部备案）研究员、工业和信息化部教育与考试中心专家库专家。

目 录
第一部分 航空研制项目管理
第一章 航空研制项目管理概述·································································.2
1.1 我国航空研制项目管理发展历程····················································.2
1.2 国外航空研制项目管理发展历程····················································.4
1.2.1 美国···············································································.4
1.2.2 欧洲···············································································.6
1.3 航空研制项目的分类与特征··························································.7
1.3.1 项目分类·········································································.7
1.3.2 项目特征·········································································.9
第二章 项目进度与成本管理理论·····························································.12
2.1 项目进度管理············································································.12
2.1.1 进度管理概念··································································.12
2.1.2 航空研制项目进度管理特点················································.13
2.1.3 进度计划方法与工具·························································.14
2.2 项目成本管理············································································.17
2.2.1 成本管理概念··································································.17
2.2.2 成本管理的方法与工具······················································.18
2.3 挣值分析法···············································································.24
2.3.1 关键性能指标··································································.24
2.3.2 指标分析········································································.24
第二部分 进度与成本数智化管控体系与流程
第三章 数智化管控体系设计···································································.28
3.1 数智化管控体系架构··································································.29
3.1.1 设计目标与思路·······························································.29
3.1.2 管控体系架构设计····························································.30
3.2 基础功能模块介绍·····································································.32
3.2.1 工作分解结构··································································.32
3.2.2 绩效控制账户设置····························································.33
3.2.3 绩效基线评审··································································.33
3.2.4 成本模型构建··································································.34
3.2.5 综合主进度计划制定·························································.34
3.3 核心功能模块介绍·····································································.35
3.3.1 挣值管理工具包·······························································.35
3.3.2 绩效评估与预测·······························································.35
3.3.3 偏差分析与预警·······························································.36
3.3.4 外协子项目绩效管控·························································.38
3.4 部门及人员的角色与责任····························································.38
第四章 绩效控制账户设置······································································.42
4.1 绩效控制账户的设置··································································.42
4.2 工作任务分解············································································.44
4.3 工作任务与组织分解的集成·························································.46
4.4 绩效控制账户授权·····································································.48
第五章 进度计划与状态监测···································································.49
5.1 进度计划制定与状态更新概述······················································.49
5.2 进度计划制定············································································.52
5.2.1 不同层级进度计划····························································.53
5.2.2 进度计划评估··································································.54
5.3 进度状态监测············································································.56
5.3.1 进度绩效设置··································································.56
5.3.2 进度状态测量··································································.57
第六章 成本计划与状态监测···································································.60
6.1 成本基线制定与状态监测流程概述················································.60
6.2 成本基线制定············································································.64
6.2.1 控制账户成本计划····························································.64
6.2.2 预算基线········································································.65
6.3 成本状态监测············································································.65
6.3.1 财务系统的扩展·······························································.65
6.3.2 成本数据的收集与记录······················································.66
6.3.3 基于WBS 的成本归集·······················································.67
6.3.4 基于控制账户的成本归集···················································.67
6.3.5 成本数据转换系统····························································.68
6.3.6 成本数据对账··································································.68
第七章 进度与成本状态分析与预测··························································.69
7.1 进度与成本状态分析··································································.69
7.1.1 状态分析报告··································································.69
7.1.2 状态分析流程··································································.70
7.1.3 状态分析步骤··································································.72
7.2 进度与成本状态预测··································································.77
7.2.1 进度与成本状态预测流程···················································.77
7.2.2 完工估算········································································.78
7.2.3 控制账户完工估算类型······················································.79
7.2.4 全面完工估算··································································.80
7.2.5 常规完工估算··································································.81
第三部分 智能管控模型与算法
第八章 项目进度与成本状态预测模型·······················································.84
8.1 系统动力学模型········································································.84
8.2 AnyLogic 仿真软件·····································································.85
8.3 控制账户绩效状态预测模型·························································.86
8.3.1 理论模型构建··································································.86
8.3.2 AnyLogic 仿真模型实现····················································.88
8.4 项目整体绩效状态预测·······························································.90
8.4.1 控制账户前后搭接关系建模················································.90
8.4.2 基于网络计划图的项目整体绩效预测····································.90
8.5 仿真测试与分析········································································.93
8.5.1 案例项目与测试数据·························································.93
8.5.2 单控制账户绩效预测·························································.93
8.5.3 项目进度与成本绩效预测···················································.96
第九章 基于多智能体强化学习的项目绩效动态控制···································.101
9.1 多智能体与强化学习概述··························································.101
9.2 项目多控制账户绩效动态控制····················································.102
9.2.1 问题描述······································································.102
9.2.2 控制账户的马尔可夫决策过程···········································.103
9.2.3 项目整体的控制过程·······················································.104
9.3 多智能体强化学习算法·····························································.106
9.4 实验测试与分析········································································111
参考文献······························································································116